Docent Dr Mikael Weissmann

Hybrid Threats | Psychological Defence | Intelligence analysis | Technology & Defence | Modern Warfare | Urban Warfare | Staff Rides | Wargames | China and the Indo-Pacific | the Balkans

Category: Intelligence Analysis

New publication: Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services

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On 2 February 2025

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

My latest article, “Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services”, is now published in Security & Defence Quarterly!
This article examines the evolving nature of antagonistic threats in the context of intelligence and security services, with a focus on small and medium-sized countries. In an era where the line between war and peace is increasingly blurred, intelligence and security services face a rapidly evolving threat environment.

This article examines:

  • The rise of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare
  • The strategic role of AI and machine learning in modern security
  • How intelligence services must adapt to meet multi-domain challenges

As technology and geopolitics shift, resilience, adaptability, and international cooperation will be key to navigating these uncertainties.

Read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/197248

#SecurityStudies #HybridThreats #Intelligence #AI #Defence #CyberSecurity #NationalSecurity

New Publication: Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community

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On 28 January 2025

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

I am pleased to share our latest article, “Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community: Priming for a Volatile Age,” in International Journal for Intelligence and CounterIntelligence co-authored with Niklas Nilsson and Björn Palmertz.

In today’s complex security environment, the intelligence community must address dynamic hybrid threats through coordinated efforts that span multiple sectors. Our research emphasizes the critical interaction between intelligence analysis, communication, and societal resilience.

Key points include:
• The necessity of reciprocal engagement between intelligence actors and key societal stakeholders.
• An introduction of the Intelligence Analysis Interaction Model, which offers a framework for understanding how hybrid threats evolve and for fostering resilience across society.
• Recommendations on developing tools to identify vulnerabilities, build resilience, and formulate comprehensive whole-of-society responses to hybrid threats.

The full article can be accessed here: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2024.2435265

International Society of MilitarySciences Conference 2024

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On 6 September 2024

In Conference, Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Land Warfare, Professional Military Education (PME), Psycological Defence, Russia, Staff Ride, Staff Ride, Teaching and Learning, Urban Warfare

From 10-12 September the Swedish Defence University is host for the International Society of Military Sciences (ISMS) Annual Conference 2024. This years theme is “Scaling up, Learning Lessons, Ensuring Quality.”

I am co-chairing WG 1: War Studies, Operations and Tactics with LtCol Dr Lars Henåker. The program contains a range of interesting papers and presentations on the themes WAR IN UKRAINE, OPERATIONAL ARTS AND STRATEGY, INFORMATION SPACE AND THE COGNITIVE FRONTIERS OF WARFARE, and HYBRID/PRIVATE/AI. Conference Program

I am presenting three papers:

“Reevaluating Urban Warfare: Lessons and Strategies from the Ukraine Conflict” co-authored with Prof. Douglas W. Winton of the Dwight D. David Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy, National Defense University, US.

“From Battlefield to Classroom: Incorporating War Games and Staff Rides in Professional Military Education (PME) to enhance Urban Combat preparedness” co-authored with
Major Jonas Björkqvist of the Land Operations Division, Department of War Studies, Swedish Defence University

“Operationalizing Psychological Defense: A framework for assessing, addressing and evaluating hybrid threats in democratic societies”, discussing the findings of the report Building Resilience and Psychological Defence – An analytical framework for countering hybrid
threats and foreign influence and interference which I have co-authored with Björn Palmertz, Lund University Psychological Defence Research Institute, Docent Niklas Nilsson, Swedish Defence University and Dr Johan Engvall, Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies.

New chapter on the “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services”

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On 30 August 2024

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

A new anthology on the Future of Intelligence and Security Services in Total Defence [Framtidens säkerhetstjänst i totalförsvaret] has been published by the Centre for Societal Security (CTSS) at the Swedish Defence University. This anthology aims to analyse how modern threat landscapes, new technologies, legislation, NATO membership, and the need for collaboration with other agencies and companies will impact the future operations of military security services and intelligence agencies. Written by some of Sweden’s leading experts in the field, the anthology seeks to describe the challenges facing military security and intelligence services as Sweden rebuilds its total defence and crisis preparedness.

My own contribution is a chapter on “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services” explores the evolving nature of global security threats, focusing on the increasing complexity of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare. These threats employed by state as well as non-state actors, exploit the blurred boundaries between war and peace. The chapter highlights how traditional military superiority is being challenged by these unconventional methods, which combine cyberattacks, disinformation, and other tactics. It emphasises the need for intelligence and security services to adapt to this changing landscape by understanding and effectively countering these emerging threats.

My chapter can be downloaded here (in Swedish): https://fhs.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1853875&dswid=-4422

The complete book can be downloaded here https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12320 (in Swedish).

New article: Current Intelligence and Assessments: Information Flows and the Tension between Quality and Speed

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On 7 February 2024

In Intelligence Analysis, Publication

Just out in International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, article on “Current Intelligence and Assessments: Information Flows and the Tension between Quality and Speed”.

This article takes a particular interest in the dynamics between information flows, continuous ongoing assessments, intelligence dissemination, and forward-looking operational advice. The point of departure is the tension between balancing quality (in the sense of in-depth processing of large amounts of information) and speed (meeting requirements of timeliness) in current intelligence assessments. The article takes an explorative approach to practices in current intelligence, utilizing qualitative interview data combined with open source material.

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