Land Warfare | Urban Warfare | Hybrid Threats and Foreign Interference| Intelligence Analysis | Russian Warfare & Influence | China | Asia

Category: Psycological Defence

New report on North Macedonia’s Response to Hybrid Threats and Malign Foreign Influence and Interference

I am excited to announce that our research project on “Building Resilience and Psychological Defence: Countering Hybrid Threats and Foreign Influence and Interference,” has just published a new report on North Macedonia’s Response to Hybrid Threats and Malign Foreign Influence and Interference in the Psychological Defence Research Institute‘s working paper series. It is authored by Professor Zhidas Daskalovski and Sasho Damjanovski from the Faculty of Security-Skopje, University St. Kliment Ohridski-Bitola, North Macedonia.

This report underscores the urgent need for resilience against hybrid threats in North Macedonia, especially as global security dynamics shift following the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Utilizing our previously published framework, it offers in-depth analysis and proposes countermeasures through a holistic approach. Notably, it highlights societal polarization in the Western Balkans and how the intersecting interests of major powers heighten vulnerabilities to foreign interference.

Proud to Announce My Participation at the Zagreb Security Forum 2024

 I am honored to share that I will be participating as a panelist at the Zagreb Security Forum 2024 in Zagreb, Croatia 🇭🇷 on October 11-12, 2024.

I will be presenting on “An Analytical Framework for Countering Hybrid Threats and Malign Foreign Influence and Interference: Building Psychological Defence and Resilience for the Threats of Today and Tomorrow” This framework was developed together with Björn Palmertz, Niklas Nilsson, and Johan Engvall. You can read our full report here: psychologicaldefence.lu.se/report

Looking forward to engaging discussions and valuable exchanges with esteemed colleagues and experts from around the world.

For detailed information on the program and speakers, please visit: zagrebsecurityforum.com/Program

International Society of MilitarySciences Conference 2024

From 10-12 September the Swedish Defence University is host for the International Society of Military Sciences (ISMS) Annual Conference 2024. This years theme is “Scaling up, Learning Lessons, Ensuring Quality.”

I am co-chairing WG 1: War Studies, Operations and Tactics with LtCol Dr Lars Henåker. The program contains a range of interesting papers and presentations on the themes WAR IN UKRAINE, OPERATIONAL ARTS AND STRATEGY, INFORMATION SPACE AND THE COGNITIVE FRONTIERS OF WARFARE, and HYBRID/PRIVATE/AI. Conference Program

I am presenting three papers:

“Reevaluating Urban Warfare: Lessons and Strategies from the Ukraine Conflict” co-authored with Prof. Douglas W. Winton of the Dwight D. David Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy, National Defense University, US.

“From Battlefield to Classroom: Incorporating War Games and Staff Rides in Professional Military Education (PME) to enhance Urban Combat preparedness” co-authored with
Major Jonas Björkqvist of the Land Operations Division, Department of War Studies, Swedish Defence University

“Operationalizing Psychological Defense: A framework for assessing, addressing and evaluating hybrid threats in democratic societies”, discussing the findings of the report Building Resilience and Psychological Defence – An analytical framework for countering hybrid
threats and foreign influence and interference
which I have co-authored with Björn Palmertz, Lund University Psychological Defence Research Institute, Docent Niklas Nilsson, Swedish Defence University and Dr Johan Engvall, Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies.

New chapter on the “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services”

A new anthology on the Future of Intelligence and Security Services in Total Defence [Framtidens säkerhetstjänst i totalförsvaret] has been published by the Centre for Societal Security (CTSS) at the Swedish Defence University. This anthology aims to analyse how modern threat landscapes, new technologies, legislation, NATO membership, and the need for collaboration with other agencies and companies will impact the future operations of military security services and intelligence agencies. Written by some of Sweden’s leading experts in the field, the anthology seeks to describe the challenges facing military security and intelligence services as Sweden rebuilds its total defence and crisis preparedness.

My own contribution is a chapter on “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services” explores the evolving nature of global security threats, focusing on the increasing complexity of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare. These threats employed by state as well as non-state actors, exploit the blurred boundaries between war and peace. The chapter highlights how traditional military superiority is being challenged by these unconventional methods, which combine cyberattacks, disinformation, and other tactics. It emphasises the need for intelligence and security services to adapt to this changing landscape by understanding and effectively countering these emerging threats.

My chapter can be downloaded here (in Swedish): https://fhs.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1853875&dswid=-4422

The complete book can be downloaded here https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12320 (in Swedish).

New book on Russian Warfare and Influence

Our new book Russian Warfare and Influence: States in the Intersection between East and West by Bloomsbury Academic is out now! Buy it here https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/russian-warfare-and-influence-9781350335219/# or download it for free https://www.bloomsburycollections.com/monograph?docid=b-9781350335257&st=russian+warfare .

The book addresses the vulnerabilities of these countries to Russian influence and hybrid warfare tactics, as well as their responses to this security challenge. It includes a close examination of local developments in states such as Ukraine, Belarus, Finland, Armenia, Serbia and many others, analysing specific scenarios and practices, and draws on these observations to develop the current conceptual understanding of hybrid warfare as a phenomenon. Scholarship frequently focuses only on Russia and treats countries subjected to Russian hybrid measures as passive victims, thus providing an overly schematic picture of Russian behaviour. This book instead treats these states as actors in their own right, assessing their potential to address and counter the specific security problems arising from their geographic and political position.

Table of Contents

1. Russian warfare and influence: States in the proximity of Russia
Mikael Weissmann and Niklas Nilsson

2. Is it still hybrid? Russian aggression against Ukraine
Hanna Shelest

3. Does Russia need a hybrid Belarus policy?
Grigory Ioffe

4. Russia’s influence operations in the Baltic states
Janis Berzinš

5. The vulnerable little brother: Opportunistic partnership and Serbia’s exposure to Russia’s spoiler tactics
Vuk Vuksanovic

6. ‘Kosovo is Serbia’: A case study unpacking how Russia advances (shared) Russian and Serbian interests in the Balkans by shaping perceptions on Kosovo
Dorthe Bach Nyemann

7. Beyond cyber and disinformation: Russian hybrid warfare tactics in Georgia
Kornely Kakachia and Shota Kakabadze

8. Russia’s utilization of unresolved conflicts and proxy regimes
Niklas Nilsson, Johan Engvall and Mikael Weissmann

9. A diverse picture of Russian warfare and influence
Niklas Nilsson and Mikael Weissmann

New report: Building Resilience and Psychological Defence

My latest report published by the Psychological Defence Research Institute’s Working Paper series is now available: Building Resilience and Psychological Defence.

It outlines an analytical framework, guidebook, and template addressing six dimensions of hybrid threats and foreign influence and interference from a nation-state perspective. Acknowledging that these types of threats are complex and multifaceted, it is intended to be an analytical starting point for government and non-government actors.

Co-authored with Björn Palmertz, Niklas Nilsson and Johan Engvall.

Full text available here: https://www.psychologicaldefence.lu.se/sites/psychologicaldefence.lu.se/files/2024-03/BuidlingResilienceAndPsychologicalDefence.pdf

Attending conference on Psychological Defence

On 10-11 October I attended a research conference organised by the Psychological Defence Research Institute at Lund University. I participated in a panel on the role of narratives in information influence and disinformation.

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