Docent Dr Mikael Weissmann

Hybrid Threats | Psychological Defence | Strategic Intelligence | Technology & Defence | Modern Warfare | Urban Warfare | Staff Rides | Wargames | China and the Indo-Pacific | the Balkans | Central Asia

Category: Psycological Defence Page 1 of 2

New article: Resilience by Design: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Survive amid Great-Power Rivalry

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On 26 July 2026

In Central Asia, China, Hybrid Threats, Psycological Defence, Publication, Russia

Why have Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan proved more resilient than many expected amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and intensifying great-power rivalry?

In our new article in Survival, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Dr Johan Engvall and I argue that this resilience is not accidental. It is resilience by design.

Resilience by Design: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Survive amid Great-Power Rivalry identifies a sovereignty-first strategy built on three mutually reinforcing layers:

• domestic hardening
• regional consolidation
• multi-vector diplomacy

Rather than viewing Central Asian states primarily as passive objects of competition between Russia, China and the West, we show how Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan actively manage dependencies, diversify external relationships and expand their room for strategic manoeuvre.

The article is part of our broader research on hybrid threats, psychological defence and cognitive warfare, conducted through the Hybrid Threats Research Group, and contributes to the project Building Resilience and Psychological Defence: Countering Hybrid Threats and Foreign Influence and Interference, funded by the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency.

Read the article here:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2026.2704407

If you do not have access to the full text, send me a message and I will be happy to share an author ePrint link.

Expert Workshop on Collaborative AI-Enabled Sensemaking at USC Capital Campus, Washington, DC

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On 15 March 2026

In Conference, Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence

On 25–26 February 2026, I had the pleasure of co-hosting the workshop “Collaborative AI-Enabled Sensemaking: Strategic intelligence in an era of hybrid threats, cognitive warfare, and disinformation” together with Mind-Alliance Systems in Washington, DC. The workshop was held at the USC Capital Campus.

Bringing together senior practitioners working on intelligence and security issues, the workshop explored how AI-enabled collaborative analysis can strengthen strategic intelligence in an increasingly complex threat environment shaped by hybrid threats, cognitive warfare, and disinformation.

A central feature of the workshop was the “Frostbite Fracture” scenario, a realistic grey-zone operations exercise involving Russian hybrid threats to Swedish infrastructure. Within this setting, an AI-enabled decision-support prototype called Sentinel was used to stress-test how intelligence is framed, challenged, disseminated, and acted upon at the intelligence–policy nexus.

The workshop provided an excellent opportunity to examine how human expertise and AI-supported analytical tools can be combined to improve shared situational awareness, sensemaking, and decision support under conditions of uncertainty. It also offered a valuable forum for discussion on the future of strategic intelligence and the practical implications of AI for professional analytical work.

Many thanks to David Kamien & Mind-Alliance Systems, to all participants, and to USC Capital Campus for hosting an engaging and timely workshop.

Visiting Researcher from RSIS, Singapore 13-16 January, 2026

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On 18 January 2026

In Hybrid Threats, Indo-Pacific, Professional Military Education (PME), Psycological Defence, Staff Ride, Staff Ride, Teaching and Learning, Visit

Dr Ong Weichong, National Security Studies Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, visited the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security at the Swedish Defence University on 13–16 January 2026.

During his visit, Dr Ong engaged in discussions and collaboration with researchers from the Hybrid Threats Research Group, as well as within the project Building Resilience and Psychological Defence: Countering Hybrid Threats and Foreign Influence and Interference. Discussions were also held regarding future collaboration on staff rides and forthcoming courses.

The visit was characterised by insightful and constructive discussions, knowledge exchange, and meetings with Swedish stakeholders, contributing to strengthened international research collaboration in the field of security and defence.

New publication: Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare, and Psychological Defence

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On 2 January 2026

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

A new practitioners’ toolbox, Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare, and Psychological Defence, has been published by the Hybrid Threats Research Group.

The toolbox consolidates key practitioner takeaways from five publications into a single, coherent framework for countering hybrid threats and cognitive warfare and for strengthening psychological defence and societal resilience. It links short-term threat–response cycles with long-term resilience-building and operationalises national-level psychological defence in a ready-to-use format.

The publication integrates three complementary analytical tools:

  • The hybridity blizzard model, illustrating how an aggressor’s targeting of vulnerabilities interacts with defensive responses over time and situating intelligence at the interface between detection, countermeasures, and resilience-building.
  • The intelligence analysis interaction (hourglass) model, capturing the coupled processes of analysis, aggregated and tailored communication, and reception and absorption among societal actors.
  • The assess–address–evaluate (AAE) framework, a six-dimensional structure guiding analysis, action, and learning for psychological defence and resilience.

Together, these tools provide practitioners with a practical workflow for diagnosing hybrid activity, improving intelligence interactions, and strengthening resilience through a coordinated whole-of-society approach.

Conference on Psychological Defence – Lund, October 2025

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On 16 October 2025

In Conference, Hybrid Threats, Psycological Defence

I attended the Conference on Psychological Defence in Lund, Sweden (14–15 October 2025), hosted by the Psychological Defence Research Institute (PDRI) and the Swedish Psychological Defence Authority.
This year’s theme explored the intersection between research and policy, addressing resilience, threat intelligence, strategic communication, and deterrence in an evolving security landscape.

Read more: Exploring the Intersection of Research and Policy at the Conference on Psychological Defence

Expert Round Table on EU, China, and Central Asia

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On 18 September 2025

In Central Asia, China, Conference, Hybrid Threats, Psycological Defence, Russia

On 16 September 2025, I had the privilege of serving as a keynote speaker at the online expert round table “Global Chains and Strategic Sustainability: EU, China, and Central Asia in an Era of Geopolitical Risks, Technological Competition, and Regional Integration,” hosted by the University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED) together with the Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

My presentation, “Resilience by Design: How Central Asia Keeps Agency between Brussels and Beijing without Choosing Sides,” highlighted findings on the hierarchy of needs for post-colonial states and introduced a three-layered model of resilience, developed in collaboration with Dr. Johan Engvall (Swedish Defence Research Agency). I also shared concrete policy recommendations on what Europe should—and should not—do in its approach to Central Asia.

Launching new website for the Hybrid Threat Resaerch Group (HTRG) – hybridthreatsresearch.com

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On 18 July 2025

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Russia, Urban Warfare

The Hybrid Threats Research Group is an interdisciplinary initiative based at the Swedish Defence University, linking scholars and practitioners from political science, strategic communication, war and defence studies, cybersecurity, influence operations, intelligence, and area studies. Our mission is to advance the capacity to identify, analyse and respond to hybrid threats—where conventional and unconventional tactics converge to test social, political and technological resilience.

Guided by a steering group, and supported by a worldwide network of affiliates, we foster international collaboration to build knowledge that supports governments and key societal actors.

Our research focuses on five interconnected themes:

  1. Modern Warfare – examining how technological change reshapes conflict and defence strategy.
  2. Hybrid Threats – exploring the blended tactics of state and non-state actors that erode traditional defence mechanisms.
  3. Strategic Intelligence – strengthening the collection, analysis and application of intelligence to anticipate threats.
  4. Psychological Defence – building societal resilience against disinformation and influence operations across peace, crisis and war.
  5. Defence Systems – bridging social science and engineering to integrate technical and human factors in effective defence solutions.

Through targeted research projects, workshops and seminars, HTRG provides a creative environment for research training, professional development and evidence-based policy advice. We welcome collaboration with academia, government, and industry partners committed to understanding and countering the complex security challenges of today’s interconnected world.

The new website can be found here: https://www.hybridthreatsresearch.com

Seminar on Central Asia, Europe and the Nordic Region

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On 1 June 2025

In Central Asia, Conference, Psycological Defence

On May 27 I attended a seminar on “Central Asia, Europe and the Nordic Region: Opportunities and Challenges” organised by the Institute for Security & Development Policy.

It was a very productive event, with presentations and discussions between participants from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Sweden.

Recommended read on the topic by the organisers in The National Interest by Dr Johan Engvall and Dr Svante E. Cornell – How the Nordic Countries Can Engage Central Asia.

Field Studies in Uzbekistan 5-18 April 2025

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On 22 April 2025

In Psycological Defence, Russia, Visit

Between 5–18 April 2025, I had the opportunity to conduct a research trip to Uzbekistan together with Dr Johan Engvall from the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI).

During our visit, we engaged in productive discussions with several key institutions, including the International Institute for Central Asia, the Institute for Advanced International Studies at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy, the Development Strategy Center and the Center for Progressive Reforms. As part of the visit, we also took part in a round table discussion on the new security situation and EU-Central Asian relations hosted by the Center for Foreign Policy Studies.

We also travelled to the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan, conducting a number of fruitful meetings with government officials as well as representatives from the Karakalpak State University. We also had the opportunity to visit the International Innovation Center for the Aral Sea Basin, learning about their work.

The visit provided valuable input for ongoing research and reinforced avenues for continued academic exchange. The discussions offered nuanced insights into Uzbekistan’s institutional priorities and strategic outlook, enriching our understanding of the evolving regional dynamics. We were met with a high level of openness and hospitality throughout, which greatly facilitated the depth and quality of our engagements. The meetings contributed substantively to shaping future lines of inquiry and collaboration.

New publication: Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services

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On 2 February 2025

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

My latest article, “Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services”, is now published in Security & Defence Quarterly!
This article examines the evolving nature of antagonistic threats in the context of intelligence and security services, with a focus on small and medium-sized countries. In an era where the line between war and peace is increasingly blurred, intelligence and security services face a rapidly evolving threat environment.

This article examines:

  • The rise of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare
  • The strategic role of AI and machine learning in modern security
  • How intelligence services must adapt to meet multi-domain challenges

As technology and geopolitics shift, resilience, adaptability, and international cooperation will be key to navigating these uncertainties.

Read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/197248

#SecurityStudies #HybridThreats #Intelligence #AI #Defence #CyberSecurity #NationalSecurity

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