Tag: Intelligence Analysis

My latest article, “Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services”, is now published in Security & Defence Quarterly!
This article examines the evolving nature of antagonistic threats in the context of intelligence and security services, with a focus on small and medium-sized countries. In an era where the line between war and peace is increasingly blurred, intelligence and security services face a rapidly evolving threat environment.

This article examines:

The rise of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare
The strategic role of AI and machine learning in modern security
How intelligence services must adapt to meet multi-domain challenges

As technology and geopolitics shift, resilience, adaptability, and international cooperation will be key to navigating these uncertainties.

Read the full article here: https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/197248

#SecurityStudies #HybridThreats #Intelligence #AI #Defence #CyberSecurity #NationalSecurity

New Publication: Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community

By mikaelweissmann

On 28 January 2025

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

I am pleased to share our latest article, “Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community: Priming for a Volatile Age,” in International Journal for Intelligence and CounterIntelligence co-authored with Niklas Nilsson and Björn Palmertz.

In today’s complex security environment, the intelligence community must address dynamic hybrid threats through coordinated efforts that span multiple sectors. Our research emphasizes the critical interaction between intelligence analysis, communication, and societal resilience.

Key points include:
• The necessity of reciprocal engagement between intelligence actors and key societal stakeholders.
• An introduction of the Intelligence Analysis Interaction Model, which offers a framework for understanding how hybrid threats evolve and for fostering resilience across society.
• Recommendations on developing tools to identify vulnerabilities, build resilience, and formulate comprehensive whole-of-society responses to hybrid threats.

The full article can be accessed here: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2024.2435265

New chapter on the “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services”

By mikaelweissmann

On 30 August 2024

In Hybrid Threats, Intelligence Analysis, Psycological Defence, Publication

A new anthology on the Future of Intelligence and Security Services in Total Defence [Framtidens säkerhetstjänst i totalförsvaret] has been published by the Centre for Societal Security (CTSS) at the Swedish Defence University. This anthology aims to analyse how modern threat landscapes, new technologies, legislation, NATO membership, and the need for collaboration with other agencies and companies will impact the future operations of military security services and intelligence agencies. Written by some of Sweden’s leading experts in the field, the anthology seeks to describe the challenges facing military security and intelligence services as Sweden rebuilds its total defence and crisis preparedness.

My own contribution is a chapter on “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services” explores the evolving nature of global security threats, focusing on the increasing complexity of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare. These threats employed by state as well as non-state actors, exploit the blurred boundaries between war and peace. The chapter highlights how traditional military superiority is being challenged by these unconventional methods, which combine cyberattacks, disinformation, and other tactics. It emphasises the need for intelligence and security services to adapt to this changing landscape by understanding and effectively countering these emerging threats.

My chapter can be downloaded here (in Swedish): https://fhs.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1853875&dswid=-4422

The complete book can be downloaded here https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-12320 (in Swedish).

New article: Current Intelligence and Assessments: Information Flows and the Tension between Quality and Speed

By mikaelweissmann

On 7 February 2024

In Intelligence Analysis, Publication

Just out in International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, article on “Current Intelligence and Assessments: Information Flows and the Tension between Quality and Speed”.

This article takes a particular interest in the dynamics between information flows, continuous ongoing assessments, intelligence dissemination, and forward-looking operational advice. The point of departure is the tension between balancing quality (in the sense of in-depth processing of large amounts of information) and speed (meeting requirements of timeliness) in current intelligence assessments. The article takes an explorative approach to practices in current intelligence, utilizing qualitative interview data combined with open source material.

ISA 2023 Annual Convention

By mikaelweissmann

On 20 March 2023

In Conference

March 15th – 18th I attended the International Studies Association’s Annual Convention in Montreal, Canada together with our research group. We organised a panel on “Future challenges for the intelligence and security services” which I co-chaired with Dr Cris Matei of the Naval Postgraduate School. The panel included four presentations:

Intelligence as Policy Impact – is it measurable?
by Per Thunholm (Centre for Total Defence, Swedish Defence University)

Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community
by Bjorn Palmertz (Research Institutes of Sweden, RISE)

Current operations intelligence and intelligence assessments: information flows and the tension between quality and speed
by Niklas Nilsson and Mikael Weissmann (Swedish Defence University)

Future threats: what is to be expected?
by Mikael Weissmann (Swedish Defence University)

Docent Dr Mikael Weissmann is a Senior Lecturer in Systems Science for Defence and Security in the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security at the Swedish Defence University. He is also an Associate Professor in War Studies and an Affiliated Researcher at the Swedish Defence University Centre for Wargaming (CWG). He co-convenes the Hybrid Threats Research Group (HTRG) and serves as the Principal Investigator of the project “Building Resilience and Psychological Defence: Countering Hybrid Threats and Foreign Influence and Interference.”

Weissmann’s research focuses on Security, Strategy and Intelligence. His work is structured around six themes:
1. Hybrid Threats
2. Resilience & Psychological Defence
3. Intelligence analysis
4. Technology & Defence
5. Modern Warfare
6. China and the Indo-Pacific

In addition, Weissmann is interested in Teaching & Learning within Professional Military Education (PME), particularly practical and scenario-based exercises and assessments with special emphasis on staff rides and wargames.

He currently pursues research in a number of areas, including:
- Teaching & Learning in PME, focusing on staff rides, wargames, and scenario-based learning approaches.
- Hybrid threats and whole-of-society defence, focusing on foreign influence and interference.
- Psychological Defence, focusing on the building resilience and psychological defence
- Intelligence Analysis, particularly the role of AI and the private sector and the dissemination of intelligence in the information environment in Strategic Early Warning.
- Technology and Defence, focusing on military innovation and the role of AI and autonomous systems in warfare.
- Russian Warfare and Influence, with a particular interest in Ukraine, the Balkans and Central Asia.
- Military Operations and Tactics, in particularly Urban Warfare and the ole of technology.
- China’s foreign policy and role in the world (including its role in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Global South, and the implication of the second Trump Administration).
- Security and Strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
- Foreign Influence and Local Adaptation in Post-Colonial States under Great-Power Influence (focusing on Central Asia and the Middle Corridor).

ABOUT
Dr Mikael Weissmann is an Associate Professor in War Studies and Academic Head & Deputy Head of the Land Operations Division at the Swedish Defence University. He is co-convenor of the Land Warfare Research Group (LWRG) and the Hybrid Threats Research Group (HTRG). He is also a member of CSCAP-EU.

Weissmann’s research on security, strategy and warfare focuses on four research themes:
1) Hybrid Threats and Foreign Interference, 2) Intelligence Analysis, 3) Land Operations and Tactics, and 4) China and East Asian Security and Strategy.

He is also interested in Teaching & Learning with a special interest in practical and scenario-based exercises and examinations as well as Professional Military Education (PME).

His expertise includes:
- Hybrid threats- and warfare
- Land Warfare
- Urban Warfare
- Intelligence analysis
- Russian warfare and influence (particular interest in the Balkans and Eastern Europe)
- Military operations and tactics
- Military tactical thinking
- China and East Asian security and strategy broadly defined.
- Practical and scenario-based exercises and examinations (including staff rides, war games, case studies, scenario exercises, simulations and roleplaying games)
- Professional Military Education (PME)

His research on China and East Asia focuses on:
- China’s foreign policy and role in the world
- the South China Sea
- the North Korean nuclear conflict
- the Taiwan Issue
- Regional and Global Power Shift
- the Belt and Road initiative

Weissmann has also pursued research on track-two diplomacy, conflict management and peacebuilding as well as Sino-Russian and Europe’s relations with China and East Asia.

Hybrid Threats | Psychological Defence | Intelligence analysis | Technology & Defence | Modern Warfare | Urban Warfare | Staff Rides | Wargames | China and the Indo-Pacific | the Balkans

Tag: Intelligence Analysis

New publication: Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services

New Publication: Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community

New chapter on the “The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services”

New article: Current Intelligence and Assessments: Information Flows and the Tension between Quality and Speed

ISA 2023 Annual Convention