Anticipatory warning, AI-enabled analysis, and intelligence dissemination in the information environment

Strategic intelligence is increasingly used not only to inform decision-makers, but also to shape the information environment through the controlled dissemination of intelligence-based strategic warning. This research area examines that shift and its implications for Sweden and allies, with particular attention to AI-supported anticipatory intelligence, public–private collaboration, and the evolving role of intelligence in peacetime, crisis, and armed conflict.

Focus areas

  1. Information Environment and Strategic Communication of Intelligence
    Examining when and how intelligence is communicated to shape perceptions, pre-empt adversarial narratives, and build alignment across agencies, publics, and allies.
  2. Technology & Defence Innovation (AI, Autonomy, Datafied Warfare)
    Analysing how AI, autonomy, and emerging defence technologies transform warfare—and what that means for warning requirements, resilience, and force effectiveness.
  3. AI-Enabled Intelligence Analysis & Strategic Early Warning
    Turning high-volume, contested, and often obfuscated data into timely warning, anticipatory insight, and decision advantage.
  4. Public–Private Intelligence Ecosystems
    Understanding how commercial data, platforms, and private analytical capabilities shape intelligence production and dissemination—plus the credibility, governance, and dependency trade-offs (especially for small and medium powers).
  5. Measuring Fighting Power and Hybrid Operational Capacity
    Building assessment frameworks that integrate qualitative factors (morale, cohesion, leadership, will to fight) with quantitative indicators—across tactical-to-operational levels.

What we study

Guided by the focus areas above, the research addresses five interlinked problem sets:

1) Intelligence in the information environment

How and when can intelligence-based warning be used strategically beyond closed channels? We examine dissemination practices designed to pre-empt adversarial narratives, establish credibility under uncertainty, and create alignment across domestic institutions, publics, and partners.

2) Technology & defence innovation and its implications for intelligence

How do AI, autonomy, and datafied warfare reshape warning requirements and the character of strategic competition? We analyse how emerging technologies change both what must be anticipated and what can be credibly assessed and communicated.

3) AI-enabled intelligence analysis and anticipatory warning

How can AI and advanced analytics support collaborative anticipatory intelligence—detecting weak signals, mapping escalation dynamics, and improving speed-to-insight—while maintaining transparency, accountability, and sound analytical judgement?

4) The private sector and intelligence ecosystems

How do technology firms, data providers, and commercial intelligence actors influence intelligence production and dissemination? We examine public–private collaboration as a capability multiplier, as well as governance challenges around credibility, dependency, resilience, and responsibility.

5) Assessing fighting power and hybrid operational capacity

How can assessments of operational capacity better integrate qualitative factors (morale, cohesion, leadership, will to fight) alongside quantitative measures? We develop approaches that link tactical indicators to operational-level assessments, including how AI and private-sector capabilities can expand what is measurable and comparable.

Project structure

The research is operationalised through four complementary streams:

1) Intelligence as a strategic resource in the information environment

Identifying and analysing emerging practices of intelligence dissemination and strategic communication, including the trade-offs between informational advantage and protection of sources and methods.

2) Variation across conflict intensity

Comparing how dissemination logics and warning needs change across peacetime, security crisis, and armed conflict, including Swedish and NATO-relevant contexts, using a dynamic perspective that links threats and vulnerabilities with response and resilience.

3) Comparative case studies and synthesis

Using comparative case studies (e.g., Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, Singapore) to generate concrete insights that are synthesised into an overarching conceptual framework on intelligence dissemination and strategic warning.

4) AI prototype and international expert engagement

The stream will utilise a prototype to facilitate expert discussion of the potential of AI to support:

  • collaborative anticipatory intelligence and early warning
  • proactive identification of threats and escalatory dynamics
  • countering adversarial influence in the information environment
  • transparent communication of strategic insights under uncertainty

The project includes one to two international workshops with leading researchers and experts from among others the United States and Europe, complemented by research visits.

Selected activities

  • Comparative case studies on the public dissemination of intelligence-based strategic warning across different levels of conflict intensity.
  • Prototype-enabled expert discussions on AI-supported anticipatory intelligence, proactive threat identification, and transparent strategic communication.
  • Analysis of public–private intelligence ecosystems (commercial data, platforms, and private analytical capabilities) and their implications for credibility and governance.
  • International workshops and research visits to connect academic work with practitioner and policy needs.
  • Development and synthesis of findings into a conceptual framework for intelligence dissemination in the contemporary information environment.

Selected publications

Nilsson, Niklas, Mikael Weissmann, and Björn Palmertz. 2026. “Hybrid Threats and the Intelligence Community: Priming for a Volatile Age.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2024.2435265.

Weissmann, Mikael, Niklas Nilsson, Björn Palmertz, and Johan Engvall. 2025. Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare, and Psychological Defence: A Practitioners’ Toolbox for Intelligence Analysis and Resilience-building. Stockholm: Hybrid Threats Research Group, 30 November 2025. Available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17763856.

Weissmann, Mikael. 2025. “Future Threat Landscapes: The Impact on Intelligence and Security Services.” Security and Defence Quarterly 49(1). Available from: https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/197248.

Weissmann, Mikael, and Niklas Nilsson. 2024. “Current Intelligence and Assessments: Information Flows and the Tension between Quality and Speed.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, pp. 1–17 (published ahead of print). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2296886.

Weissmann, Mikael. 2024. “Framtida hotbilders påverkan för säkerhetstjänsterna” [“The Impact of Future Threats on Intelligence and Security Services”]. In Häggström, Henrik (ed.), Framtidens säkerhetstjänst i totalförsvaret [The Future of Intelligence and Security Services in Total Defence]. Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan (FHS). (Swedish Defence University Report Series, 1), pp. 38–67.

Weissmann, Mikael, Niklas Nilsson, Per Thunholm, and Björn Palmertz (eds.). 2021. Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations. London: I.B. Tauris. Available from: https://doi.org/10.5040/9781788317795.

Contact

For collaboration, course development, or joint research initiatives, please get in touch via the contact details on this website.